Fragmented market...

The three sub regions separated in terms of LDPE prices, the highest price was in the S-region, the average prices of film grades are between 1,310 and 1,360 €, shortage of goods and lack of demand characterize the market at the same time. In the center region the average prices of LDPE grades vary at about 1,300 €, though retail prices are by far higher. At the beginning of the month there was a shortage of goods, starting from the middle of the month there was low demand. In the N-region (Poland) what we have forecast last week actually happened, the prices of LDPE film grades dropped between 1,260 and 1,280 €.  In this region (NCE) usually there is a low demand for all products. Buyers keep waiting, and postpone even the call down of already realized deals, hoping for further price drop.

CCE buyers are uncertain, as the expectation of dropping prices was quiet general also as early as at the beginning of September, however regional suppliers did not completely follow monomer price drops. The reason is the lower inventory level of producers early September. The situation will not improve in CCE, Slovnaft is preparing for shutdown, and thus the shortage on the polyethylene market (LDPE) will be permanent. The monomer price drop (if any) in October will not be full-fledged either.

In the S-region (SCE) there is a shortage of goods in case of almost all polyethylene products, and for more than one month no PP arrives from Russia either. Due to this prices are highest here. In addition to high prices demand is quite low, compared to the previous months of the year.


Future willingness to buy and price expectations are influenced by two factors. The first one is that the end of the year is at hand, all try to achieve maximum bonuses, and thus demand is being orientated towards local large suppliers. The second one is that on the demand side, first of all in the packaging industry the effect of the sanctions imposed on Russian food import is palpable, though the set-back is just a slight one, however medium-term packaging material orders are getting smaller, delayed or even missing in certain segments.

In terms of monomers the general market opinion is that the price of ethylene will probably drop, however in case of propylene rather a roll-over or a slight increase is probable.

In the light of these factors we are of opinion that market fragmentation will continue: while in the north there will be rather decreasing polyethylene prices, in the south and in the center region we have to anticipate “roll-over’”. September was not as “harsh” to PP as it was to polyethylene products, thus roll-over is rather probable in October.

Download Excel report on Polymer Prices (Week 38 2014)

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László Budy
Managing Director
[email protected]
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Tel/Fax:  +36-46-781-645