Will there be more plastic in the ocean than fish by 2030?

Plastic pollution is an extremely pressing issue that requires global collaboration.

Mismanaged plastic waste entering rivers and seas is a hugely important global issue that needs to be addressed but plastic will continue to play an important role in many industries because it is a unique, lightweight and resource-efficient material. Switching to alternative packaging materials, for example, could more than double energy use and almost triple GHG emissions.[1] This means other materials may cause more pollution and increase global warming, so there are no easy solutions to the problem of marine litter.

But society’s relationship with plastic needs to evolve as we learn to manage plastic waste far more efficiently, recycle more of it and minimize the risk of it ending up in the ocean.

Most plastic enters the sea from Asia, generally from countries that do not have an adequate waste collection and recycling infrastructure. 60% of plastic waste in the ocean can be sourced to five countries in southeast Asia.[2] The shores of the USA, UK and the whole of Europe combined account for just 2% of plastic entering the sea.[3] 

Although the UK does export waste for recycling, the BPF has been encouraging the government and other stakeholders to ensure there are better controls in place so that no waste exported for recycling escapes into the environment. For many years, the BPF has called for the UK to reduce its reliance on exporting plastic waste and the BPF’s Recycling Roadmap has shown how, with the right drivers and investment, the UK can more than halve exports of plastic waste by 2030 and eliminate the export of low quality material.

Plastic waste that is exported must be sent to facilities that are capable of processing it in an environmentally sound manner and there needs to be adequate checks in place to ensure this happens.

Estimated Plastic Debris Entering the World's Oceans (Million Metric Tonnes Per Year)

SOURCE: Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean (2015)

In addition to major investment in improving the UK’s domestic recycling capacity, appropriate funding needs to be directed towards developing nations that are not currently capable of collecting and recycling plastic waste. This requires the relevant governments to establish circular economy objectives alongside appropriate extended producer responsibility obligations to raise and direct the required funds.

There are, however, many industry-funded initiatives across the globe to help address the issue of marine litter. For example, over 80 companies, project partners, allies and supporters are part of the Alliance to End Plastic Waste (AEPW), which was launched in 2019. AEPW aims to invest $1.5 billion before 2025 in developing scalable solutions to prevent plastic waste ending up in the environment and improve the lives of millions of people.

In addition, the Global Plastics Alliance (GPA) was formed in 2011. This is a collaboration involving 80 plastics industry associations and allied industry associations. By early 2020, 395 projects in 43 countries were launched, planned or completed.

A lot of work is ongoing and more needs to be done to address the global issue of mismanaged plastic waste entering the environment. But when it comes to there being more plastic than fish in the sea by 2050, this claim is based on questionable projections about plastic waste extrapolated from San Francisco and questionable estimates of fish numbers that were based on looking at phytoplankton from space. The BBC examined the claim in detail in 2016.[4]

Although the claim there will be more plastic than fish in the sea by 2050 is almost definitely wrong, it did make an important point: far too much mismanaged plastic waste is ending up in the ocean and this needs to stop.

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